Calculate the Politics of Weak or Strong Yen Using Arithmetic

1. Is the Weakening of the Yen Economically Correct?

 There is confusion in the debate about a weak yen.

As the video below explains, economically speaking, a weaker yen is positive for the Japanese economy as a whole.
・【Japanese】1055th: Explanation of Beggar-Thy-Neighbor that Hiroyuki Also Does Not Know About (Yoichi Takahashi Channel)

2. Is the Weakening of the Yen Politically Correct?

　However, the real political economy is not so simple.
I calculate this using elementary school arithmetic.
The question is whether the Japanese people as a whole would prefer a weaker or stronger yen.

(1) Ratio of Working-Age to Elderly People

　The elderly (pensioners) dislike inflation and a weak yen (because their pensions will be reduced in real terms).
The elderly (65+) account for about 30% of the country's population
・【Japanese】Elderly Population (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

(2) Ratio of Exporting to Importing Industries

 Export industries are the main beneficiaries of a weak yen.
Most of the exported goods are industrial products.
・【Japanese】Trends in Japan's Foreign Trade and Investment (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry)

The percentage of workers in the secondary sector of industry in the country is about 30%.
Not all companies in the secondary sector of industry are exporters, but I use this figure in my calculations anyway.
・【Japanese】Industry (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

3. Calculation

 The percentage of working-age people in the country's population is

$100 - 30 = 70$ (%)

The percentage of those of working age who are engaged in the secondary sector of industry is 30%.
Less than 30% of those of working age is employed in export industries.
The proportion of those who are employed in export industries in the country's population is

$\dfrac{70}{100} \times \dfrac{30}{100} = \dfrac{21}{100}$

($0.7 \times 0.3 = 0.21$)

Therefore, the percentage of those who benefit from a weaker yen in the country's population is less than 21%.
Conversely, the percentage of those who dislike a weak yen in the country's population is

$100 - 21 = 79$ (%)

More than 80% of the country's population dislikes a weaker yen.

4. National Interest

 But economics is not so simple.
When exporters increase their profits, the ripple effect extends to non-exporters.
In the long run, a weaker yen would certainly be in the national interest economically and statistically.
It is important for the country as a whole to be able to choose the right policies for its long-term prosperity, without being distracted by the short-term disadvantages of a weaker currency.

The strengths and weaknesses of a nation's political system will determine its future.
It is not as simple as whether a country is a democracy or not.
This is because even within democracies, there are various institutional differences and characteristics.

- To read this article in Japanese